The longest financial market crisis of the post-war history does not seem to end up at all. But those who hope for a final crisis of the world financial system could once again be surprised
It may seem a bit daring at the present time, but slowly find signs that the now more than a year continued financial market crisis could slowly increase one end. After all, in the media most recently the view dominated, the crisis will not end up at all, or there must be a worse at least worse before. And even in the current quarterly report, the mostly very true bank for international payment settlement (bis) describes the situation with "continuing tensions at the interbank market".
However, in psychological borsen analyzes, it is almost always pointed out that man is just at aming that the morning of yesterday only slightly different. Therefore, it is therefore close to ame when the boron courses have risen yesterday, this will be the case tomorrow. All the more a boom, so, the stronger is the strong man "nature out" inclined to believe it will go from all possible reasons for eternally so on how long boom times are always watching.
But this obviously also applies vice versa – and the crisis is already a long time than every financial market crisis since the 2. World war, so that not only radical critics of the financial system seriously doubt his survival.
The anecdotically traceable negative consequences of the financial market crisis on the real economy seem statistically not even detectable in the usa. In any case, us gdp growth for the 2. Quarter from the oecd just to 3.3 percent corrected, which can not talk about a us recession after official views. As already explained here (usa renew at the expense of the hard specialist land), according to oecd, the us growth with 1.8 percent this year should even exceed that of the eurolander. But even for the euro area, the oecd for 2008 just prognized a lower but still positive growth of 1.3 percent.
Now, the financial markets are generally valid, but especially the stock markets, as a stimulus forwarder. This is often claimed that the borse became the real economy for about half a year. The highlight of an economic crisis should therefore occur half a year after the low point of the borse, which is empirically but only weakly occupied. In any case, at the financial markets, the task of bottom fishing – thus to be equipped at the exact time the courses are the deepest and established a new attracting trend. The opposite position is the fear of "grabbing a falling knife" in borsenjargon, so buy a lot to buy too early at a course breakdown and to drive high losses quickly, or invest in financial titles whose courses then stagnate for years. Accordingly, the discussion in the financial forums is currently mainly revolving at the time when the financial markets and particular share prices begin to stabilize and increase.
In the current financial crisis, however, the stock basises were not the focus, but the "interbank market", where banks give each other short-term unsecured loans, or. Suddenly no longer forgive in august 2007. The financial portal seekingalpha.Com brings a graph that indicates at least a rearance in the center of the crisis.
The chart shows the difference between the 3-month interbank rate and the interest rate of us government papers with the same term. He is considered a degree knife for stress in the financial world and prints out the confidence that banks are opposed to each other. Very well, as in august 2007, the interest on interest rates are shot up and showed extreme fluctuations. Although the appearance at the interbank market is still clearly about the long-term average, the chart shows a clear trend, as it is commonly suggested for a rearance. However, according to biz, the time structure of interbank liabilities (ie the interest rate on different maturities) show that the banks themselves are currently still expecting prere.
Nevertheless, the term structure of libor-ois spreads suggested that interbank market preres were expected to continue for some time.
However, the bis quarter report also contains signs of better times. So has in 2. Quarter of the international bond market earlier almost to succession recovered significantly, where with 1071 bn. Usd was emitted almost three times as much as in the previous quarter, and already approaching as much as before the outbreak of the crisis.
Borrowing in the international debt securities market recovered sharply in the second quarter of 2008 despite the continued turmoil in financial markets. Net iance of bonds and notes increased to $ 1,071 trillion, up substantially from $ 371 trillion in the first quarter and recover almost to the level recorded just before the recent turmoil began.
With the rearance in individual financial market segments, the courage of investors is now increasing, which is an indispensable prerequisite for a stabilization of market prices. In doing so, "foreign" investors seem to make the situation more likely to better than americans – or perhaps only the necessary financial resources.
Thus, bloomberg reported from the well-known shopping tour of japanese companies abroad since the "bubble" of the 1980s, as japanese worldwide "assets" as the rockefellercenter or impressionist gemals "shop for fantasy prices. Accordingly, japanese companies already had 48.6 billion this year. Spent on foreign asquoisitions, after only 25 billion. Usd throughout the previous year, with all the time that times is very superior and strategic. A korean state bank currently dares to attend a stake in wall street investmentbank lehmann, the fourth-gray investment bank of wall street, which is almost as poorly beleumundet, as the funfgrobe investmentbank bear sterns failed in the early year.
Last but not least, the most recently mass-released financial market employees seem slow to demand on demand. Thus, bloomberg reports that hedge funds such as balyasny, sac capital advisors and citadel investment group reported significantly more employees this year than in the previous year to benefit from the new availability of qualified money managers.
In the case of the financial markets probably the most important indicator – one end of the price decline in us home homes – but the most recent statistics showed a further racy. Here, too, there is a significant slowdown, so that the house price curtain is currently being materially violent in spain and cooqueaim.